Mixotic

AAPL 1K: Let's start talking about it

2012-02-26T08:18:00.001-08:00

Tongue in cheek, Mr. Cook called the 37 million “pretty good,” drawing laughs, but then put it in stark perspective: “As I see it, that 37 million for last quarter represented 24 percent of the smartphone market. So three out of four people bought something else. And it represented less than 9 percent of the handset market, so 9 out of 10 people are buying something else.
“The smartphone market last year was a half billion units,” he continued. “In 2015, it is projected to be a billion units. When you take it in the context of these numbers, the truth is, this is a jaw-dropping industry. It has enormous opportunities to it. Up against those, the numbers don’t seem so large anymore.”

It doesn't seem far fetched to think that Apple could achieve iPhone unit sales of 200 million per year. For the sake of argument, let's say they can simultaneously grow iPad sales to 100 million unit sales per year, and Mac sales remain relatively flat.

What would that mean for the stock price?

Whence the Windows App Store?

2012-02-26T07:50:00.000-08:00

We know Microsoft is working on an app store as part of Windows 8. Is anyone going to build an app store for the half a billion Windows 7 users?

Since Windows 7 is easily going to be around as long as XP, it seems like a huge opportunity to sell software to a few hundred million people who don't have a modern software store that lives on their desktop.

The Android Backlash?

2012-01-28T07:38:00.000-08:00

I've been wondering something about the existing consumers of Android devices for a few months, and some recent data may be now be proving it out. My hypothesis is that there may be a large group of users who were lured into buying an Android device under the guise of it being basically the same as an iPhone, but cheaper and in some ways better. They bought into the argument that it's 'more open' and that they would have 'more control'. But no one took the time to explain battery management, or killing background tasks, or security.

Let me take a moment for a brief qualifier. When I refer to 'Android users' here, I'm not talking about the people who root their device, install CyanogenMod, or genuinely prefer Android for all the technical 'freedom' it offers. I'm talking about the average, everyday user. The one who checks their email and browses the web, takes pictures and videos, and just expects things to work. They don't know how fast the processor in their phone is, or how much RAM it has. These average Android users, who bought into the platform early, may be feeling a little burned right now. The vast majority of them have never received an OS upgrade from their carrier. Many of them can't run the most popular apps for the platform, because their device isn't supported.

And that's where we get to the backlash...

Over the next year, a lot of these users are going to be looking for a new phone. In fact, many of them may have been looking for new phones at the end of 2012 (as evidenced by smartphone sales numbers of the quarter). By all reported metrics, the iPhone outsold all Android devices during the critical holiday quarter. I wonder how much a lackluster experience with their first Android phone is going to drive people to a competing platform. I think there may be a large group of disgruntled users who feel like they were deceived by Android marketing, and they might be hesitant to continue with the platform.

I truly believe the Android OS will certainly mature into a fantastic mobile operating system...eventually. Many early reviews of v4 (Ice Cream Sandwich) indicate that great progress has been made to this effect. But in the mean time there may be a difficult road ahead.

No shit, Sherlock

2011-12-21T16:48:00.000-08:00

John Gruber, Daring Fireball

Darrell Etherington, GigaOm:

When comparing the two countries, the Chinese App Store for iPhone devices was just 18 percent of download volume vs the U.S. at the beginning of 2011. By November, that share had climbed to 30 percent, meaning China jumped from less than a quarter to nearly a third over a 10-month period. The numbers are even more interesting when examining the iPad: China’s take is just south of 50 percent of combined downloads between the two countries.

I think sooner than later, China will be Apple’s biggest market.

I think sooner than later, China will be EVERYONE'S biggest market.

4", 1024x768px

2011-11-28T15:20:00.001-08:00

The current iPhone has a 3.5" screen, with a resolution of 960x640px. In thinking about a 4" screen, one wonders what the new screen resolution would be. Simply making the screen bigger, but reducing the pixel density, doesn't seem like Apple's style.

While the aspect ratio would need some adjustment, making Retina displays slightly larger seems like a simple solution. Apple could create 4" displays with the same 1024x768 resolution as the iPad. Not only would this make sense from a pixel-density standpoint, but the existing catalog of 1024x768 iPad apps would be supported natively.

Amazon 4-eva? Maybe later...

2011-11-21T15:44:00.001-08:00

Like many of the gadget obsessives, I've been playing around with this new Amazon Kindle Fire. I keep running into little things that make me wish there were a bit more to this product/service. I know that, in time, the service will mature to match similar competitive offerings, but I can't help but wonder if it's going to be worth the wait. First and foremost, the idea of having to maintain a subscription to get the content I want on a device I've purchased is feeling like a tough pill to swallow.

Here's how it's all playing out in my head. It's really a decision between two ecosystems:

I can buy media from Apple. I buy it, download it, and it's available on my devices. That's pretty much the end of it. If I decide I never want to buy anything from Apple again, I still have access to all the content I have purchased in the past.
I can buy media from Amazon. I buy it, maybe I download it, and it's available on some of my devices (if I downloaded it, and/or the device supports Amazon's media services, which many do). I can get a Prime subscription, and then I get a bunch of other content, and expedited shipping.

I know that what I buy from Apple will 'just work' with my Apple devices, and should work with my PC if necessary. But that doesn't seem to be the case with Amazon. Getting content to and from the Kindle Fire seems only possible through Amazon. Of course, I'm already heavily invested in the Apple ecosystem, so trying to bring an alien device in it bound to be problematic. Still, Amazon feels like much a riskier investment right now. The ecosystem just feels...incomplete.

What happens when I cancel my Prime subscription or don't want to pay for storage? It seems like there are a lot of these questions in the back of my head, and until I hear an answer I'm a little apprehensive about spending too much on Amazon content.

The Sound of Silence

2011-11-07T17:33:00.000-08:00

It seems particularly odd that, on a day when there's news of a serious security flaw in iOS discovered by one of the most reputable names in Mac security, certain members of the press (ahem, John Gruber) have nothing to say.

In the very least I would expect them to acknowledge the issue, and yet nothing. Maybe he's taking his time, or waiting for an official response from Apple before saying anything. But this just seems too important and potentially dangerous to ignore.

In this case, silence speaks volumes.

ps. I have no doubt that Apple will issue an fix for the security issue in short-order, and it will effectively be a non-issue. However, as of this writing, it hasn't happened yet.

FUD creeping in at Apple?

2011-11-03T13:03:00.000-07:00

"Apple executives are saying that the low priced Kindle Fire could actually be a good thing for the iPad because it introduces another level of fragmentation in the Android platform."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/barclays-apple-meeting-2011-11#ixzz1cfrZyNV0

Why even address an unreleased competing product? This reeks of fear.

I fully expect Apple will release a lower-priced 7" model of the iPad to compete with Android in that space. It's easy to see how a smaller version fits into the product line, especially when you look at how the iPod product line has changed over the last decade. And it makes sense, since in many ways they were defining a new type of device: the portable multimedia player.

With the original iPad, Apple was defining a new category of computing, so it made sense to focus on what they determined to be an optimal screen size for the experience. Now that the iPad is a runaway hit, and the only place that Android tablets seem to be getting any traction is at the 7" screen size.

My guess? When the line expands, we'll see an "iPad mini" with a 1024x768 resolution 7" screen, along with an iPad HD sporting the anticipated Retina display at double the resolution.

Commentary on Microsoft's vision of the future

2011-11-01T12:42:00.000-07:00

Today I read a list of items that someone took issue with in a video created by Microsoft and repeatedly dismissed by tech pundits such as John Gruber, among others. After watching the video, which to my eyes only shows a vision for what technology can become, I couldn't help but write this response to the list.

The video is here: http://www.microsoft.com/office/vision/

The list is here: http://opinionatedtype.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/microsoft-video-“productivity-future-vision”/

And here's my response to the list (also posted as a comment on the blog):

Talk about focusing on the unimportant minutia and missing the point completely. How utterly presumptuous of Microsoft to have a vision and create a video to express some their ideas.

In response to your list…

1. Font. Seriously? Who cares? Obviously fonts are something that can be changed in an interface, and really it’s more a matter of taste than anything. So lay off.

2. Uni-taps. It seems to me that every time a tap happens, a little microphone icon shows, indicating that voice input is being used. Even for the copy/paste operation the nice lady performs. Maybe that’s why it’s not confusing to anyone. I know it’s a stretch, but you need to imagine that they’re speaking even though you can’t hear it.

3. Gadget dimensions. It’s clear that this video represents all future device development, and that all categories of device are represented here.

4. Input methods. So your expectation is that devices won’t get better at handling a variety of different inputs, and manage them more effectively? Or that new input methods will be devised and used in different ways for different devices?

5. The hand pause. Have you actually used a touch device? There are typically a lot of hand pauses while you wait for visual feedback from the device. Try a kids education app (such as the one in the video) and you’ll see that a lot of the interactions are very similar to the one depicted here.

6. You hate Office. We get it. So do we. Get over it and don’t use it.

Seriously, what is your beef? I’m no lover of Microsoft products myself, but this video shows something we don’t usually get from them, including creativity and vision. Rather than smacking them down for it, maybe they should be encouraged to pursue these lofty goals. It might actually help make for a better tomorrow.

Perspective Matters

2011-10-30T15:04:00.000-07:00

While watching the latest ads for Apple's new iPhone 4s, it occurred to me that in most of the shots only the bottom half of the actor's face is shown. You see their mouth, sometimes their nose, occasionally the eyes. As the ads progress, they show a little more of some faces, but it's clear that the focus is on the person speaking to the phone. This is incredibly important, obviously, as they're marketing a voice assistant feature, but the connection they are able to create is profound.

What I find interesting is that there's nothing to focus on in the shot other than what the person is actively doing. The tight shots create an intimacy with the viewer, as if you're eavesdropping on the people in the spot as they carry on a conversation with their phone.

The ads also begin and end with a POV shot looking down on the phone. The effect of these bookend shots is to place the viewer into the context of using the device, and it's remarkably effective. One can instantly imagine actually using the new feature of the phone that's just been demonstrated.

Steve's most important lessons

2011-10-06T16:22:00.000-07:00

"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.

I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary."

- Taken from the 2005 Stanford commencement speech given by Steve Jobs

Many people have posted one paragraph or another from the speech Steve Jobs gave at the 2005 Stanford commencement. I just wanted to collect the life lessons he learned, removed from the stories he included in the speech. I think it's one of the most poignant assessments of what truly important in how you live your life.

Where are all the Kindle Fire haters?

2011-10-02T08:59:00.000-07:00

So here's what I don't get. Why aren't all the Android fans trashing the Kindle Fire? Shouldn't they be dissing this thing with it's gimped feature set? I mean, just look at this crap-tastic spec sheet:

Non-HD screen
No 3G or 4G
Only content from Amazon
Curated app store

It just seems like all the people who have been talking shit about the iPad for a variety of reasons would be up in arms over the lack of features in the Fire. In fact, the contrary seems to be true. People are calling the iPad overdone, or too feature-rich. That this is the tablet for the masses. That could be true, but I think it remains to be seen. I think the Fire look a like a fantastic little media device. I'm still on the fence about getting one myself, but I know they're going to sell a ton of them. I just think that the iPad is really a different class of device.

And do people really think that Amazon won't try to make the same experience available to users on iPads too? They already have a Kindle app, and Cloud Player works. There's no reason they can't put it all together to do a bit a more.

Are you readyto take the "natural scrolling" challenge?

2011-08-26T20:24:00.000-07:00

When Apple released OS X 10.7 Lion, one of the primary gripes among power users (myself included) was the switch implemented with "natural scrolling". This changed the previous scrolling behavior, in which the content moved down when the finger moved down (either on a trackpad, or by rolling a scroll wheel). I, like others, though they just couldn't leave well enough alone.But I decided to give it a try for a while, just to see how it felt. After just a few days I found that I actually preferred the new "natural scrolling". So much so, that when I switch back to a machine running Snow Leopard or Windows, using a trackpad for scrolling feels unnatural. I really think they might be on to something here, especially as we move into a more touch-oriented era of personal computing.So I challenge all the Lion users complaining about this change to "give it a week". You might actually end up liking it.

There's more 'prior art' where that came from...

2011-08-23T14:25:00.000-07:00

They should also include a clip of Picard using a PADD on Star Trek: The Next Generation...

Samsung Cites Kubrick's '2001' Film as Prior Art Defense Against Apple's Injunction Request

Gruber: 96% is a lot

2011-03-21T13:31:00.000-07:00

It's true.

But dinging Google for making a high percentage of revenue on 'advertising' is like being critical of Apple for making the majority of their revenue on 'hardware'.

Why Gruber is wrong about the iPad 3 release 3

2011-02-10T12:23:00.000-08:00

In a recent post, John Gruber speculates that the iPad will get another revision to bring it's release schedule in line with the iPod. Read the full post here: Daring Fireball: The Next Six Months. John is great at analyzing Apple's product cycles and update strategies to accurately predict what's coming soon from the company. Combined with a growing group of sources close to or within the company, and he should (and does) get a lot of respect for his predictions. That said, here's why he's wrong...

He's missing a key ingredient in the mix, and that's who the primary purchaser for the product is and what the major buying events are for that part of the year. In late-sping/early summer you have two major consumer purchase events - Mother's Day in April, and Father's Day/Graduation in June (Dad's & Grads). This exactly the audience that is looking to give/get the iPad. It's a premium product with a higher price point, which I think makes it a more adult oriented product. Counter that with the fall iPod event, which is more geared toward high school/college kids heading back to school. It's also the lead up to the holiday season, and is often combined with a 'Back to School' computer purchase deal.

These two separate and focused cycles make a lot more sense to me than trying to roll them up into one. So that's why I think we'll see the iPad stick to the March/April release window. Mom and Dad get iPads on their designated days and can use them to check in on work from the backyard over the summer, while the kids get iPods for going back to school and into holiday season.

Rumor: AirPlay to allow streaming from apps to Apple TV, more?

2010-09-17T12:21:00.000-07:00

I love it when a plan comes together...

AirPlay to allow streaming from apps to Apple TV, more?: "AirPlay, Apple’s revamped version of AirTunes meant for streaming audio, video, and photos to compatible devices, may also allow for streaming of content from third-party applications, according to a new report. Citing testing done by a reader using the first iOS 4.2 beta, Mac Rumors reports that every application that uses the standard iOS audio/video playback interface now shows an AirPlay button for streaming.

iPods, iPads, Apple TV and Streaming Apps...

2010-09-02T20:28:00.000-07:00

I have to admit, I was feeling a little ambiguous about the Apple TV announcement this week (even though I ordered one anyway). Considering my previous post, I thought I had missed something completely in thinking that there would be an app store for TV. And I suppose I did. But then it hit me: AirPlay is going to be about much more than media stored on your device. It's going to be about apps too.

Consider the biggest problem: there's no touch interface for the TV.

It's something that was constantly in my head when thinking about what might become of Apple TV. If you can't touch the screen, how to you interact with iOS, much less all the apps in the store. Simply put, you can't. And no amount of innovation can get around certain limitations in the interface that would make converting apps sloppy, if not impossible. You just can't play Angry Birds on a TV with a remote. I was sure that Apple would come up with a simple and elegant solution. And I think they have...

Consider the solution: a wireless connection to a large display, driven by a touch device (and not one, but two A4 processors).

So you're sitting on the couch, catching up on some news, when you decide to see what games are on. You fire up the MLB app, pick a game, and send it out to your Apple TV to watch, while all the game stats and controls are displayed on your device. Or maybe you decide you want to play some Real Racing HD, so you fire that up and send it over to the Apple TV. Your iPod/iPad/iPhone turns into the controller, and you're off to the races.

The point is that the Apple TV is basically a simple display for whatever apps are on your device. The device itself become the control, providing the missing touch interface, and allowing you to interact with the app in the way it was intended.

Apple iTV: Why apps on your TV will work

2010-08-30T15:15:00.000-07:00

It's really quite simple when you think about it.

It's the one thing customers have been asking cable companies to provide for nearly two decades that they haven't delivered.

A-la-carte Content.

Netflix, Hulu, Discovery, ABC, CBS, MLB, PBS, ESPN, Disney.

They all have apps.

What do you want to watch today?

What if Verizon got the iPod instead?

2010-07-24T09:12:00.000-07:00

Remember back in the day when the government was auctioning off the 700Mhz wireless spectrum, and Verizon stepped up with their Open Network Initiative? Well, in recent months there's been a lot of speculation about a Verizon iPhone or iPad, but no one has said anything about the possibility of a data-only Verizon iPod.

I have long thought that Apple is waiting for a carrier-agnostic model for their devices, but they've needed the industry to get to a point where it meets Apple's criteria for ease-of-use. I think the iPhone can almost be considered a stop-gap product, filling the void in time necessary for true wireless ubiquity to become a reality.

Make no mistake: Apple does not want to be in a relationship with AT&T, or any other wireless carrier for that matter. If they could operate their own network, they absolutely would. They are well aware of the tactics the cellular industry has adopted to limit device capabilities in the name of profit., and it doesn't fit with their approach.

All Apple really wants is their devices connected to a decent network. FaceTime is the key.

Why is FaceTime wifi only? Why are we reading rumors of FaceTime on iPod and iPad being linked to an email address and iTunes account? The answers are relatively simple...

Apple doesn't want to create a strong association between FaceTime and a cellular network. They want you to think data network, not voice. Banish the thought that you are "calling" someone. And there's no way they're going to let AT&T's network issues impact their hottest new technology.
Linking through an email address means you don't need a cellular phone number to route through. You just need an IP address and an iTunes account and you're set.
The stage is being set for a much bigger audience. This holiday season is going to be all about FaceTime-capable iDevices. Christmas morning opening presents? Let's FaceTime grandma and show her how you look in that new sweater! Yeah, 'nuff said.

With iOS 4 offering multitasking capabilities, and background VoIP, the ecosystem is getting ready for an influx of data-driven communications. We all know it's just a matter of time before the iPod gets a camera. What if it got a 4G/LTE modem too? Would you need a cellular number any more if you could make and receive calls using Skype, and leave it running in the background on your iPod?

Which brings me back to Verizon. It's still going to be years before the networks are robust enough that this becomes a reality. But it's only a matter of time. And in the mean time, Verizon has what many consider to be the best network in the country, and they've said they're pursuing an Open Device Initiative (fwiw). It sure would be nice to have a camera-equiped iPod with a data-only connection to the best wireless network in the country.

It's all just speculation...but a kid can dream can't he?

Apple to world re: antenna issues

2010-07-24T08:17:00.001-07:00

Suck it.

Enjoy your new phone!

Sometimes, we make wonderful things together.

2010-07-07T15:11:00.000-07:00

Here's hoping this is one of them.

YouTube "Life in a Day"

iPhone carrier exclusivity: Coming to an end?

2010-06-22T16:58:00.000-07:00

It's one of the big questions everyone wants answered about the iPhone: when will carrier exclusivity end, ridding us of the ball-and-chain that is AT&T?

I'm starting to believe the recent rumors of a CDMA iPhone being released on Verizon before the end of the year. Here's my reasoning

AT&T recently upped the early termination fee for canceling a contract from $175 to $375. That's a pretty big jump, and would definitely provide incentive for people to keep their new contract.
Early upgrades for most users - AT&T made the iPhone 4 upgrade eligible early...up to six months in some cases.

Why does this point to the end of exclusivity?

Apple is giving AT&T one last bonanza of iPhone users through the iPhone 4 launch. When the dust settles, and the majority of users are signed up for their new cellular contracts, Apple will launch the iPhone on Verizon. AT&T will be in a decent position with their existing customers, who will need to pay a premium to defect.

This would undoubtably piss quite a few people off, but do you think AT&T really cares that much, considering their recent service track record? My guess is they're banking on a lot subscribers leaving for another carrier eventually anyway (once they can take their iPhone with them) and are looking to cash in now.

The next iOS device should be the Apple TV

2010-06-12T11:01:00.000-07:00

The more I think about the state of the iOS universe since the recent WWDC keynote, the more I think there's an important piece of the puzzle coming soon. There were a few rumors before the keynote that there would be news regarding a new version of the Apple TV. With Google's recent unveiling of Google TV, everyone seemed to expect a response from Apple to counter their living room offensive.

I can't be the only one thinking it's only a matter of time until we see a completely revamped Apple TV based around the iOS and capable of tapping into the App Store. There are already apps available to bring the content, including video from a variety of sources (Netflix, YouTube, MLB, iTunes, etc). They would need to be modified to work at HD resolutions, but the iPad is already demonstrating that a larger interface only presents more opportunities. Of course, the TV lacks the touch interface, but there's no reason an iPhone, iPod or iPad couldn't serve that purpose.

If it were up to me I'd be mashing up an Apple TV with a Time Capsule to serve as a centralized media player/server and wireless backup device. It would backup any iDevice that's linked to it, and make media available via Home Sharing to both linked devices and other media players on the local network. You'd be able to browse the full shared library and add media for offline consumption. It's probably a few years off at least, but a guy can dream can't he?

As for Apple TV with iOS...maybe in time for the holidays?

Choice, according to Google

2010-05-21T17:06:00.000-07:00

I've been following the latest announcements from Google I/O and reading responses from across the web to the news about Google TV. It's definitely a compelling product, and should provide some drive for the rest of the industry to get their act together.

For the record, I'm a self proclaimed Google fanboy. I've been preaching Domain Apps since they launched. I truly believe Google is building the foundation of the future of the web, and doing so in a relatively open and flexible manner. Shit, this post is even running on Blogger...

But something about how Google has positioned the TV product doesn't sit right with me. Maybe it's the smug tone of their announcements, or the statements about how they're different from Apple, or the dire warning about an Orwellian future (seriously?).

Frankly, what they're talking about doesn't sound a whole lot different than what's already on the market today. Here's a rundown of the details, in case you missed them...

Buy a TV from Sony exclusively -or- Buy a set top box from Logitech exclusively
Buy these devices at Best Buy exclusively
Get a DISH subscription (only with a DISH subscription do you get the full features of the Google TV experience)

So let's recap...

2 device manufacturers, but only one for each type of device
1 place to buy all the hardware
1 TV subscription service to get all available features

Here are the issues I have with this arrangement:

Hardware: I haven't been interested in Sony hardware for 5 years. Maybe this will change that, but I don't have a lot of confidence. Back in the day I used to love them (I even still own a 10-year-old Sony CRT that sits in the basement currently, and still works great), but Sony products seem to suffer from the same 'brand tax' that plagues Apple. (Logitech, on the other hand, I love. I have a Harmony remote and other Logitech devices, so this could be a saving grace.)
Place of Purchase: Best Buy? Personally I hate setting foot in those stores. The service is poor and the employees aren't what I would consider 'knowledgeable'.
Satellite TV: I'm a Comcast subscriber, for a few simple reasons. First and foremost, they carry the Portland Trailblazers basketball broadcasts. There's no other provider who can show 70+ games out of the Blazers season. I know this isn't something that Google has control over, but there's no way I'm taking DISH over my home team. They also provide what I consider to be pretty good Internet service...it's not perfect, but it's a hell of a lot better than DSL.

Can someone point out the choices here? Because I'm having a hard time finding them.

Here's some real choice...
A Mac mini plugged into my TV running Boxee or Plex. Or maybe MythTV on a Linux VM. I guess I could give Windows 7 a shot on a different VM, or in Boot Camp. Or maybe I'll just use a web browser and go where I want, when I want....or maybe...

Oh sorry, was that too many choices?